A recent report published by The Lancet medical journal has projected a significant increase in cancer cases and deaths worldwide by the year 2050. The study suggests that this trend will also impact Canada, necessitating proactive measures by healthcare systems to mitigate preventable cancer fatalities and avoidable healthcare costs.
In 2023, there were 18.5 million new cancer cases globally, excluding non-melanoma skin cancers. By 2050, this number is expected to surge to 30.5 million. Additionally, the report forecasts a more dramatic rise in cancer-related deaths, with 18.6 million projected fatalities in 2050 compared to 10.4 million in 2023, marking a 75% increase in cancer deaths since 2024.
The most prevalent cancers leading to fatalities globally, including windpipe and lung cancers, colon and rectal cancers, and stomach cancer, are anticipated to escalate by 2050, as indicated by the authors of the study. This increase is primarily attributed to aging populations and demographic growth in high-income countries such as Canada.
Ali Mokdad, a professor of health metrics sciences at the University of Washington and co-author of the study, highlighted that the rise in cancer cases in Canada is primarily due to the population’s increased longevity rather than a surge in cancer incidence. Notably, the standardized data analysis revealed a decline in cancer death rates in high-income countries like Canada, with a 9% reduction in cancer rates per 100,000 individuals and a 29% decrease in cancer-related deaths from 1990 to 2023.
While Canada demonstrates progress in early cancer diagnosis, Mokdad emphasized the disparities in cancer rates in low and middle-income countries driven by factors such as smoking, environmental pollution, and alcohol consumption. Modifiable risk factors such as tobacco use and unhealthy diets were found to contribute significantly to global cancer deaths, with tobacco use alone accounting for 21% of cancer-related fatalities.
As the burden of cancer cases and deaths continues to grow, Mokdad stressed the importance of adequately preparing healthcare systems to enhance cancer screening and treatment capacity. Failure to address these needs could result in delayed and ineffective cancer treatment, leading to avoidable fatalities and increased economic costs associated with advanced-stage cancer care.
Dr. Keith Stewart, the director of the Princess Margaret Cancer Care Network in Toronto, emphasized the strain on healthcare facilities from the rising number of cancer patients, underscoring the necessity for strategic planning and investment to meet the escalating demand for cancer care services in Canada.