In November, national home sales in Canada dropped by 10.7% compared to the same period last year, signaling a stagnant market as the year comes to a close. The Canadian Real Estate Association reported a total of 33,895 property transactions in November, with a slight decrease of 0.6% from October on a seasonally adjusted basis. The average sale price for a home in November was $682,219, marking a 2% decline from the previous year.
According to CREA’s senior economist Shaun Cathcart, some sellers are reducing prices to close deals before the end of the year, following a mid-year surge. With the Bank of Canada maintaining the key rate at 2.25%, many fixed-rate borrowers are anticipated to increase their activity in the coming year. Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem affirmed that the current rate strikes a balance between inflation and economic growth.
While CREA’s home price index showed a marginal decrease of 0.4% from October to November and a 3.7% decline year-over-year, some analysts remain skeptical about a quick market recovery. NerdWallet Canada spokesperson Clay Jarvis suggested that factors beyond interest rates are hindering homebuyers, such as persistent inflation impacting savings and down payments.
Toronto-based broker Marco Pedri expressed caution, expecting a slow demand rebound due to concerns about tariffs, job market stability, and the overall economy. He believes that significant market improvements may not materialize until late 2026 or even into 2027, particularly affecting first-time homebuyers who are hesitant to enter the market amid ongoing uncertainties.
TD economist Rishi Sondhi predicted that oversupply in British Columbia and Ontario could continue to suppress home prices, while tighter markets in other regions may drive stronger price growth. Despite a slight decline in November sales, Sondhi remained optimistic about a gradual sales increase in 2026, fueled by pent-up demand in key provinces and improving job prospects.
The total number of new listings dipped by 1.6% month-over-month, with 173,000 properties listed for sale in Canada by the end of November—an 8.5% increase from the previous year but 2.5% below the long-term average for that period.