The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has revised its 2025 home sales forecast for the second time this year, indicating a 3.5% increase in homes changing ownership in June compared to last year. Additionally, Canadian home sales in June rose by 2.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis.
According to CREA’s latest report, it anticipates a total of 469,503 residential properties to be sold in 2025, marking a 3% decrease from 2024. The national average home price is projected to decrease by 1.7% annually to $677,368 this year, down approximately $10,000 from the previous forecast in April.
Senior economist Shaun Cathcart mentioned that despite a turbulent start to the year, recent data suggests that the housing market rebound initially predicted for this year, before being disrupted by trade tensions with the U.S., may have only been postponed by a few months.
CREA highlighted that market conditions are improving, driven by pent-up demand, lower interest rates, and a resilient economy that is expected to avoid worst-case tariff scenarios. The association forecasts a 6.3% increase in national home sales in 2026 to reach 499,081, aligning with its April prediction of a 2.9% sales growth next year.
The national average home price is estimated to rise by 3% from 2025 to $697,929 in 2026. In June, the national average sale price experienced a 1.3% decline compared to the previous year, settling at $691,643.
The Greater Toronto Area significantly influenced the rise in home sales over the past two months, with newly listed properties across the country decreasing by 2.9% from May. Despite this, the total number of properties listed for sale at the end of June reached 206,435, reflecting an 11.4% increase from the previous year.
“June’s sales performance aligned with expectations, indicating a gradual recovery from earlier market challenges,” noted TD economist Marc Ercolao, foreseeing continued sales growth in the second half of the year fueled by pent-up demand. However, economic uncertainties, especially regarding new tariff threats, may keep sales levels subdued.