Hurricane Melissa, one of the most powerful storms ever recorded in the Caribbean, is poised to make landfall in Jamaica early Tuesday after experiencing “rapid intensification” — a phenomenon driven by climate change that is increasingly leading to destructive storms in the region. Initially classified as a tropical storm on Saturday morning, Melissa’s wind speeds surged from approximately 115 kilometers per hour to 225 kilometers per hour within just a day, reaching Category 5 hurricane status by Monday morning. By the afternoon, the storm’s winds had escalated to 281 kilometers per hour, making it the most potent storm globally in 2025 so far.
The slow movement of Melissa is a significant concern, described as “very, very dangerous” by Akshay Deoras, a research scientist at the University of Reading’s National Centre for Atmospheric Science in the U.K. He highlighted the increased risk of heavy rainfall associated with slow-moving tropical cyclones like Melissa, which could lead to significant precipitation over Jamaica.
With already six fatalities reported across the Caribbean, Jamaica is bracing for what could be its most severe hurricane disaster to date. The National Hurricane Center warns that certain areas of the country could receive up to a meter of rainfall. Hurricane Beryl struck the southern region of Jamaica just last year, resulting in losses amounting to approximately $200 million US, equivalent to 1.1% of the country’s GDP, also following a rapid intensification pattern.
Deoras pointed out two key factors driving Melissa’s strength: abnormally high ocean surface temperatures in the Caribbean, which are two to three degrees above average, and the reliance of tropical storms on the warm surface waters for energy. This exceptional warmth provided the ideal conditions for Melissa’s swift development as it traversed the region at a slow pace over the weekend.
The warming of ocean temperatures worldwide is increasingly influencing climate patterns. A significant heatwave in the Pacific Ocean has caused unusual temperature variations in North America this fall. Last year marked the highest global average sea surface temperatures on record, reflecting the broader impact of rising ocean heat on climate systems.
Meteorologist Shel Winkley from Climate Central emphasized that the warm ocean temperatures contributing to Melissa’s intensity were significantly more likely due to climate change. Their analysis indicates that climate change has boosted Melissa’s peak wind speeds by around 16 km/h, potentially amplifying the storm’s damages by 50%. Winkley noted that four out of the five hurricanes this season have undergone rapid intensification, a trend that was rare in previous decades but has become increasingly common, occurring in nearly every season, if not more frequently.