A surge in carbon emissions is increasingly acknowledged as a significant factor in the rise of extreme weather events such as heat waves, floods, and droughts. A recent study published in the journal Nature has delved deeper into this connection, specifically linking heat waves to major fossil fuel companies and their products.
The study focused on major heat waves occurring from 2000 to 2023 and the impact of “carbon majors,” which comprise state-owned companies like Gazprom and Saudi Aramco, investor-owned firms such as Shell, BP, ExxonMobil, as well as nation-states involved in fossil fuel production like India and the former Soviet Union. By analyzing the lifetime carbon emissions of these entities and existing research on the exacerbation of heat waves by carbon emissions, the study estimated the influence of specific carbon majors on the severity and likelihood of heat waves.
Findings revealed that climate change amplified the average intensity of global heat waves between 2010 and 2019 by approximately 1.68 degrees Celsius, with 0.47 degrees Celsius attributed to just 14 of the largest carbon majors. The study provided detailed insights into the contribution of each of the 180 carbon majors to 213 heat waves examined, highlighting even the impact of smaller companies. For instance, a Russian coal company with minimal emissions significantly increased the likelihood of multiple heat waves.
Yann Quilcaille, the lead researcher from ETH Zürich, expressed surprise at the substantial contribution of even the smallest carbon majors to heat wave probabilities. The study marks a pivotal step in assigning moral and legal accountability to fossil fuel companies for climate change, potentially influencing climate litigation globally. While the study does not quantify the monetary damages caused by each company, it sets a foundation for assessing liability in the future.
The research aligns with a shifting landscape of climate policies worldwide, particularly amid changes in the U.S. administration favoring fossil fuels. Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada is yet to unveil alternative strategies to meet emission targets following recent policy reversals. Moreover, the study may impact legal actions against fossil fuel companies, as demonstrated by ongoing cases in Canada where government inaction on climate change is contested.
Experts suggest that the study, alongside the International Court of Justice’s recent advisory opinion on climate reparations, could empower affected parties to seek redress against entities contributing to climate change. The research strengthens the case for holding carbon majors accountable for their significant role in exacerbating climate-related disasters, shedding light on the responsibility they bear in addressing the climate crisis.