Alberta’s proposed timeline for the potential construction of a new oil pipeline on the West Coast is ambitious but faces significant hurdles, according to analysts at CIBC World Markets. The provincial government plans to submit a proposal to the federal major projects office by July 1, seek national interest designation by Oct. 1, and commence construction as early as Sept. 1, 2027. Oil flow may not start until around 2033 or 2034, as per a provincial official.
CIBC analysts Robert Catellier and Rogan Anantharajah described the timelines as optimistic and best-case scenarios, noting the urgency displayed by Alberta. The province recently outlined these targets after finalizing an agreement with Ottawa to gradually raise the market price of carbon to $130 per tonne by 2040.
One remaining agreement is pending with the federal government, the province, and industry representatives on funding the Pathways carbon capture project, a crucial requirement for the proposed pipeline. Currently, no private-sector entity has stepped forward to share the project’s risks and costs, leading the Alberta government to take the lead in the application process.
While some pipeline companies are considering involvement in the project, several conditions need resolution to support the significant investments required. The aim of the pipeline is to transport up to one million barrels of oilsands crude daily to the West Coast, with a preference for a northern port due to the shorter shipping distance to Asia.
Negotiations with British Columbia, consultations with Indigenous groups, and concerns regarding the ban on oil tanker loading in northern B.C. remain unresolved. The timeline clarity provided by Alberta has been viewed positively by ATB Financial chief economist Mark Parsons, who emphasized the potential economic benefits of the Pathways project and expanded pipeline capacity.
ATB estimates that the combined impact of Pathways and additional pipeline developments could boost Canada’s real GDP by 1.1% and Alberta’s by 5.1% between 2027 and 2035. Parsons highlighted this as a significant boost to Alberta’s economic outlook and a substantial positive for Canada’s overall economic forecast.