As Washington intensifies discussions with Ukraine and Russia, and President Donald Trump indicates hope for a nearing peace agreement, key contentious issues persist between Kyiv and Moscow. Disagreements linger over control of Eastern Ukraine’s disputed regions and security guarantees, a pivotal matter for Kyiv seeking deterrence against potential Russian aggression. Ukraine seeks concrete security assurances, distinct from mere pledges from its allies.
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1994, Ukraine relinquished Moscow’s nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees from the U.S., the UK, France, China, and Russia under the Budapest Memorandum, which Ukrainians view as ineffective after Russia’s actions in Crimea and Donbas. While pursuing NATO membership, Ukraine now aims for U.S.-backed security assurances due to NATO member disagreements.
Discussions involve potentially offering Ukraine security guarantees modeled after NATO’s Article 5, with Italy’s initial proposal echoed by Trump during a meeting with Putin. Despite Putin suggesting US and European nations could provide similar assurances, Russia has not confirmed this publicly. The leaked peace plan endorsed by Moscow and Washington hinted at vague but “reliable” security guarantees involving the US.
Regarding peacekeepers, several allies, including Canada, consider deploying troops post-ceasefire, albeit challenged by Russia’s resistance to NATO troops in Eastern Ukraine. A potential solution could involve stationing peacekeeping forces in neighboring countries. Trump has ruled out placing American troops in Ukraine, instead focusing on surveillance equipment and NATO backup in case of major incidents.
As Russia’s military operation aimed to prevent Ukraine’s NATO entry, its stance on security guarantees remains firm with no concessions on key objectives. While significant hurdles persist in territorial control negotiations, ongoing discussions represent the first substantial talks since March 2022. The current negotiations involve serious dialogues rather than previous maximalist public diplomacy, indicating potential progress towards a resolution.
Future talks between the U.S., Ukraine, and Russia, including discussions with Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll and envoy Witkoff, suggest continued engagement towards a finalized agreement. Trump plans to meet Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and Putin only when a deal is close to completion.